Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Luguentz DortRebounds12
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints22
- Chris PaulAssists11
- Harrison BarnesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–110
- Q45.0Luguentz Dort offensive rebound104–110
- Q45.0Alex Caruso misses 23-foot three point jumper104–110
- Q47.0Luguentz Dort offensive rebound104–110
- Q49.1Jalen Williams misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot104–110
- Q411.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Julian Champagnie (Jalen Williams gains possession)104–110
- Q420.1Julian Champagnie enters the game for Zach Collins104–110
- Q420.1(00:20.3) [Spurs] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Spurs] charged with a timeout104–110
- Q420.1Spurs Full timeout104–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:58Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumperOKC 57 – 66 SA · SA 45% → 54% +9SA 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q36:27Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 68 – 78 SA · OKC 28% → 37% +9OKC 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q32:56Keldon Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumperOKC 72 – 86 SA · SA 72% → 80% +9SA 72% → 80%+9 pts
- Q31:33Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three pointerOKC 77 – 88 SA · OKC 17% → 26% +9OKC 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q31:16Chris Paul makes 26-foot three pointer (Malaki Branham assists)OKC 77 – 91 SA · SA 75% → 83% +9SA 75% → 83%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML OKC -475 / SA +365
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5
- OKC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 68.9%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -384
- SA +384 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.0 – 106.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1631 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | −21 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +138 Elo | OKC 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 76.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 75.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 109.025th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.5 | Points allowed | 110.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.9 | Margin | −1.016th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 109.518th of 30 |
| 1st of 30100.9 | Defense rating | 110.512th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.5 | Pace | 99.721st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304–1 | Road vs home | 5–314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–1 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.