Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints13
- Jerami GrantAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds7
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints28
- Fred VanVleetAssists8
- Amen ThompsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–116
- Q40.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound88–116
- Q40.0Taze Moore misses 70-foot three point jumper88–116
- Q41.0Jae'Sean Tate makes free throw 2 of 288–116
- Q41.0Rockets offensive team rebound88–115
- Q41.0Jae'Sean Tate misses free throw 1 of 288–115
- Q41.0Duop Reath shooting foul88–115
- Q45.0Rayan Rupert lost ball turnover (Jae'Sean Tate steals)88–115
- Q410.1Jack McVeigh makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)88–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:04Shaedon Sharpe makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 3 – 0 HOU · POR 16% → 20% +4POR 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q19:45Donovan Clingan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 6 – 0 HOU · POR 21% → 26% +5POR 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q17:52Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)POR 8 – 4 HOU · HOU 72% → 77% +5HOU 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q16:52Jalen Green makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 10 – 9 HOU · HOU 76% → 81% +5HOU 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q13:52Kris Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 13 – 13 HOU · POR 14% → 18% +4POR 14% → 18%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -11.5
- ML POR +500 / HOU -725
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -8
- HOU 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 78.6%, market 84.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -527
- POR +527 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 107.5 – 119.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +48 | POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +226 Elo | HOU 78.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 78.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 84.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.8 | Points scored | 114.612th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 106.23rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−7.1 | Margin | +8.45th of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.5 | Offense rating | 111.116th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 102.92nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.2 | Pace | 102.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 7–26th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+7 Elo- Deandre Ayton right finger−14 Elo
Rockets
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–6 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–3 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.