Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints17
- Deni AvdijaAssists6
- Deni AvdijaRebounds8
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints22
- Ja MorantAssists11
- Santi AldamaRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–123
- Q420.2shot clock turnover98–123
- Q441.0Jake LaRavia defensive rebound98–123
- Q444.1Rayan Rupert misses two point shot98–123
- Q449.1Jabari Walker defensive rebound98–123
- Q452.1Yuki Kawamura misses 23-foot three point jumper98–123
- Q41:13Duop Reath makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rayan Rupert assists)98–123
- Q41:16Duop Reath offensive rebound95–123
- Q41:23Jabari Walker misses 25-foot three point jumper95–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:47Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)POR 0 – 3 MEM · MEM 78% → 83% +4MEM 78% → 83%+4 pts
- Q25.1Ja Morant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)POR 54 – 65 MEM · MEM 87% → 91% +4MEM 87% → 91%+4 pts
- Q39:21Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 62 – 68 MEM · POR 11% → 16% +5POR 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q38:13Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)POR 62 – 71 MEM · MEM 84% → 89% +5MEM 84% → 89%+5 pts
- Q37:32Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 65 – 73 MEM · POR 8% → 12% +4POR 8% → 12%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -10.5
- ML POR +340 / MEM -450
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5.5
- MEM 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- MEM: Elo 71.2%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -360
- POR +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.0 – 123.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +66 | POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −15, Donovan Clingan −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +158 Elo | MEM 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.5 | Points scored | 120.32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 113.618th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.5 | Margin | +6.66th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.1 | Offense rating | 113.57th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 107.25th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.3 | Pace | 106.13rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 6–313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−10 Elo- Deandre Ayton finger injury−15 Elo
- Donovan Clingan left knee sprain−10 Elo
Grizzlies
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–2 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.