Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints27
- Malik MonkAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints29
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Julius RandleRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–104
- Q41.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound115–104
- Q41.0Anthony Edwards misses 3-foot tip shot115–104
- Q41.1Anthony Edwards offensive rebound115–104
- Q42.1Donte DiVincenzo misses 23-foot three point jumper115–104
- Q420.1Jae Crowder makes 22-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)115–104
- Q432.1Malik Monk defensive rebound112–104
- Q435.1Keegan Murray blocks Anthony Edwards 's 6-foot two point shot112–104
- Q440.2De'Aaron Fox lost ball turnover (Julius Randle steals)112–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:24Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 99 – 102 MIN · SAC 14% → 28% +15SAC 14% → 28%+15 pts
- Q43:42Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 102 – 102 MIN · SAC 27% → 48% +21SAC 27% → 48%+21 pts
- Q43:17De'Aaron Fox makes 24-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 105 – 102 MIN · SAC 48% → 71% +23SAC 48% → 71%+23 pts
- Q42:15Anthony Edwards makes 8-foot two point shot (Julius Randle assists)SAC 107 – 104 MIN · MIN 12% → 25% +13MIN 12% → 25%+13 pts
- Q41:46De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointerSAC 110 – 104 MIN · SAC 78% → 94% +16SAC 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML SAC +125 / MIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -135
- SAC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 108.0 – 110.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −13 | −17 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +74 Elo | MIN 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 112.617th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 111.110th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.511th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 111.914th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 110.412th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.1 | Pace | 99.520th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 8th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 5–316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.