Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints27
- Fred VanVleetAssists11
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints29
- Rob DillinghamAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game117–111
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime117–111
- OT2.1Rob Dillingham makes 12-foot pullup jump shot115–111
- OT8.1Jabari Smith Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Fred VanVleet assists)115–109
- OT13.1Amen Thompson defensive rebound113–109
- OT15.2Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point jumper113–109
- OT16.1Anthony Edwards offensive rebound113–109
- OT20.1Rob Dillingham misses driving layup113–109
- OT25.2Dillon Brooks makes free throw 2 of 2115–109
- OT25.2Dillon Brooks makes free throw 1 of 2114–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:51Fred VanVleet makes 24-foot three pointer (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 100 – 102 MIN · HOU 9% → 29% +20HOU 9% → 29%+20 pts
- Q438.0Amen Thompson makes two point shotHOU 102 – 102 MIN · HOU 18% → 49% +32HOU 18% → 49%+32 pts
- OT3:01Amen Thompson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)HOU 105 – 105 MIN · HOU 26% → 49% +23HOU 26% → 49%+23 pts
- OT2:30Jabari Smith Jr. makes two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 107 – 105 MIN · HOU 49% → 67% +18HOU 49% → 67%+18 pts
- OT1:55Alperen Sengun makes 3-foot two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 109 – 105 MIN · HOU 69% → 85% +16HOU 69% → 85%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML HOU +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1.5
- MIN 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 43.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 108.5 – 111.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | −15 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +47 Elo | HOU 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 112.815th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.1 | Points allowed | 110.89th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+8.7 | Margin | +2.010th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 112.611th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30101.8 | Defense rating | 110.612th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.7 | Pace | 99.520th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 5–29th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–6 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–3 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.