Minnesota Timberwolves at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints31
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–110
- Q41.2Julius Randle bad pass (Gradey Dick steals)105–110
- Q49.1Julius Randle defensive rebound105–110
- Q411.1Scottie Barnes misses free throw 2 of 2105–110
- Q411.1Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2105–110
- Q411.1Rudy Gobert enters the game for Naz Reid105–109
- Q411.1Timberwolves Full timeout105–109
- Q411.1Naz Reid personal foul105–109
- Q416.1Gradey Dick defensive rebound105–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:55Donte DiVincenzo makes 27-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 82 – 80 TOR · MIN 55% → 68% +13MIN 55% → 68%+13 pts
- Q48:56Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 86 – 84 TOR · MIN 54% → 68% +14MIN 54% → 68%+14 pts
- Q46:59Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 93 – 88 TOR · MIN 68% → 81% +13MIN 68% → 81%+13 pts
- Q45:20Chris Boucher makes 23-foot three point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)MIN 95 – 95 TOR · TOR 26% → 43% +17TOR 26% → 43%+17 pts
- Q43:50Scottie Barnes makes 12-foot two point shotMIN 95 – 99 TOR · TOR 59% → 72% +14TOR 59% → 72%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML MIN -280 / TOR +225
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3.5
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.4%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -239
- TOR +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 116.5 – 110.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +9 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +103 Elo | MIN 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 113.416th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 119.527th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.8 | Margin | −6.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 109.020th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 114.923rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.0 | Pace | 101.810th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 13th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 3–423rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–9 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.