Minnesota Timberwolves at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints28
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds20
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints29
- Derrick WhiteAssists5
- Derrick WhiteRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–107
- Q47.0Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert105–107
- Q47.0Timberwolves Full timeout105–107
- Q47.0Timberwolves Full timeout105–107
- Q47.0Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound105–107
- Q410.1Jaylen Brown misses 30-foot three point step back jumpshot105–107
- Q433.1Julius Randle makes 3-foot layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)105–107
- Q442.1Anthony Edwards defensive rebound103–107
- Q444.1Al Horford misses 25-foot three point jumper103–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:25Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointerMIN 97 – 104 BOS · BOS 83% → 94% +11BOS 83% → 94%+11 pts
- Q43:13Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot three pointerMIN 100 – 104 BOS · MIN 6% → 17% +11MIN 6% → 17%+11 pts
- Q42:04Jaden McDaniels makes 1-foot dunk (Julius Randle assists)MIN 102 – 104 BOS · MIN 13% → 26% +13MIN 13% → 26%+13 pts
- Q41:16Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)MIN 102 – 107 BOS · BOS 77% → 96% +18BOS 77% → 96%+18 pts
- Q433.1Julius Randle makes 3-foot layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 105 – 107 BOS · MIN 2% → 15% +13MIN 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML MIN +270 / BOS -340
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 73.5%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -286
- MIN +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 107.0 – 115.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1658 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +13 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +177 Elo | BOS 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 70.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 120.72nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 110.89th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +9.93rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 118.53rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 108.87th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.9 | Pace | 99.821st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 17th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+13 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis surgery rehab−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–10 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.