Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints37
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists11
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds10
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints30
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–109
- Q41.0Branden Carlson defensive rebound130–109
- Q42.0Doug McDermott misses 26-foot three point jumper130–109
- Q410.1Doug McDermott defensive rebound130–109
- Q412.2Isaiah Joe misses 25-foot three point jumper130–109
- Q426.1Branden Carlson defensive rebound130–109
- Q429.1Doug McDermott misses 25-foot three point jumper130–109
- Q447.2Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2130–109
- Q447.2Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2129–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:20Kenrich Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 54 – 51 SAC · OKC 55% → 63% +8OKC 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q23:04Keegan Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)OKC 56 – 58 SAC · SAC 42% → 50% +8SAC 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q311:15Keon Ellis makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)OKC 63 – 66 SAC · SAC 45% → 54% +9SAC 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q310:51Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point jumperOKC 66 – 66 SAC · OKC 46% → 55% +9OKC 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q37:55Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 73 – 72 SAC · OKC 48% → 58% +10OKC 48% → 58%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -3.5
- ML OKC -145 / SAC +125
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 67.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -133
- SAC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 114.5 – 111.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1623 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | +15 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +130 Elo | OKC 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 114.412th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Points allowed | 112.816th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.6 | Margin | +1.511th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.2 | Defense rating | 110.613th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.118th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 4th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–7 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 2–2 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.