Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints34
- Cam ThomasAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds7
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints31
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–103
- Q43.2Nets defensive team rebound108–103
- Q47.0DeMar DeRozan misses 23-foot three point jumper108–103
- Q49.1Ziaire Williams enters the game for Cam Thomas108–103
- Q49.1Kings Full timeout108–103
- Q49.1Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2108–103
- Q49.1Nets offensive team rebound107–103
- Q49.1Jalen Wilson misses free throw 1 of 2107–103
- Q49.1DeMar DeRozan personal take foul107–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:29Jalen Wilson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 48 – 30 SAC · BKN 56% → 68% +12BKN 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q48:55Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 93 – 94 SAC · BKN 21% → 32% +12BKN 21% → 32%+12 pts
- Q46:07DeMar DeRozan makes two point shotBKN 99 – 96 SAC · SAC 33% → 44% +11SAC 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q45:40Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)BKN 102 – 96 SAC · BKN 57% → 74% +17BKN 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q44:52Jalen Wilson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shake Milton assists)BKN 105 – 98 SAC · BKN 66% → 81% +16BKN 66% → 81%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -10.5
- ML BKN +340 / SAC -450
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -4.5
- SAC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- SAC: Elo 67.8%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- SAC -360
- BKN +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 106.5 – 117.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +16 | BKN: Missing Dennis Schroder −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +129 Elo | SAC 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 74.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 73.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 115.111th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 113.117th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.8 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 112.211th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 110.312th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 100.517th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–7 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−25 Elo- Dennis Schroder sore right ankle−6 Elo
Kings
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–5 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–2 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.