Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints29
- Tre MannAssists6
- Tidjane SalaunRebounds8
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints34
- Dennis SchroderAssists12
- Ben SimmonsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–116
- Q40.0Grant Williams makes tip shot115–116
- Q41.1Grant Williams offensive rebound113–116
- Q41.1Brandon Miller misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot113–116
- Q45.1Tre Mann enters the game for Moussa Diabate113–116
- Q45.1Miles Bridges enters the game for Josh Green113–116
- Q45.1Hornets Full timeout113–116
- Q45.1Moussa Diabate defensive rebound113–116
- Q46.0Cody Martin blocks Trendon Watford 's 1-foot driving layup113–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:31Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 103 – 104 BKN · CHA 26% → 43% +17CHA 26% → 43%+17 pts
- Q44:47Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)CHA 106 – 104 BKN · CHA 42% → 62% +20CHA 42% → 62%+20 pts
- Q44:31Cameron Johnson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)CHA 106 – 107 BKN · BKN 38% → 58% +20BKN 38% → 58%+20 pts
- Q42:00Tre Mann makes tip shotCHA 108 – 109 BKN · CHA 22% → 39% +18CHA 22% → 39%+18 pts
- Q41:10Trendon Watford makes driving layup (Dennis Schroder assists)CHA 109 – 113 BKN · BKN 75% → 91% +16BKN 75% → 91%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -1.5
- ML CHA +105 / BKN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1
- BKN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- BKN: Elo 53.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BKN -114
- CHA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 108.5 – 110.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | −66 | CHA: Usual rotation · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +24 Elo | BKN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 111.418th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 114.622nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.2 | Margin | −3.321st of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.5 | Offense rating | 112.312th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 115.628th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.2 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 3–319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−66 Elo- Cam Thomas lower back tightness−21 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–6 | 11–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–9 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–1 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.