Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints37
- Cam ThomasAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
76ers- Jared McCainPoints30
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–113
- Q40.0Nic Claxton defensive rebound98–113
- Q41.0Kelly Oubre Jr. misses tip shot98–113
- Q41.0Kelly Oubre Jr. offensive rebound98–113
- Q45.1Tyrese Maxey misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot98–113
- Q412.276ers defensive team rebound98–113
- Q414.1Cameron Johnson misses 32-foot three point shot98–113
- Q418.1Guerschon Yabusele makes tip shot98–113
- Q418.1Guerschon Yabusele offensive rebound98–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:19Cameron Johnson makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotBKN 80 – 79 PHI · BKN 38% → 51% +13BKN 38% → 51%+13 pts
- Q410:34Cameron Johnson makes 28-foot three point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 83 – 79 PHI · BKN 51% → 64% +13BKN 51% → 64%+13 pts
- Q48:35Reggie Jackson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)BKN 87 – 87 PHI · PHI 38% → 53% +15PHI 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q47:25Cameron Johnson makes 32-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 90 – 89 PHI · BKN 37% → 53% +16BKN 37% → 53%+16 pts
- Q45:24Jared McCain makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 90 – 94 PHI · PHI 58% → 75% +17PHI 58% → 75%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML BKN +120 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1.5
- PHI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 43.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- BKN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 106.0 – 109.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | −63 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −103 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +46 Elo | BKN 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 103.929th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 112.616th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.0 | Margin | −8.827th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 104.230th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 113.018th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–6 | Road vs home | 1–528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−63 Elo- Joel Embiid left knee injury management−103 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–4 | 3–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.