Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints30
- Scoot HendersonAssists9
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints29
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–121
- Q49.0Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound114–121
- Q411.2Deandre Ayton misses 21-foot jumper114–121
- Q413.1Johnny Furphy enters the game for Myles Turner114–121
- Q413.1Trail Blazers Full timeout114–121
- Q413.1Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 2 of 2114–121
- Q413.1Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 2114–120
- Q413.1Toumani Camara personal take foul114–119
- Q414.0Anfernee Simons makes two point shot114–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:08Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)POR 72 – 73 IND · IND 62% → 71% +9IND 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q36:11Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 77 – 75 IND · POR 29% → 39% +9POR 29% → 39%+9 pts
- Q33:15Bennedict Mathurin makes 29-foot three pointerPOR 82 – 86 IND · IND 70% → 79% +9IND 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q47:05Tyrese Haliburton makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 98 – 103 IND · IND 71% → 83% +12IND 71% → 83%+12 pts
- Q45:39Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)POR 100 – 106 IND · IND 76% → 88% +12IND 76% → 88%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- IND -9.5
- ML POR +320 / IND -425
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- IND: Elo 69.2%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -340
- POR +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 111.0 – 120.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | −3 | POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −13, Jerami Grant −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +140 Elo | IND 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 78.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 77.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 114.412th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 117.725th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.5 | Margin | −3.221st of 30 |
| 30th of 30102.5 | Offense rating | 111.516th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.623rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.313th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−37 Elo- Donovan Clingan left knee sprain−13 Elo
- Jerami Grant left knee sprain−6 Elo
Pacers
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–8 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | — | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 2–0 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.