New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints24
- Elfrid PaytonAssists21
- Yves MissiRebounds13
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints34
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Myles TurnerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–114
- Q41.1Javonte Green makes 1-foot layup (Elfrid Payton assists)110–114
- Q42.1Javonte Green enters the game for Brandon Boston Jr.108–114
- Q42.1Enrique Freeman enters the game for Myles Turner108–114
- Q42.1Pelicans Full timeout108–114
- Q42.1T.J. McConnell makes free throw 2 of 2108–114
- Q42.1T.J. McConnell makes free throw 1 of 2108–113
- Q42.1Yves Missi personal take foul108–112
- Q43.0T.J. McConnell defensive rebound108–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:02CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Elfrid Payton assists)NO 102 – 104 IND · NO 14% → 29% +15NO 14% → 29%+15 pts
- Q43:08Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three pointer (Pascal Siakam assists)NO 104 – 107 IND · IND 56% → 78% +22IND 56% → 78%+22 pts
- Q42:27Tyrese Haliburton makes 2-foot two point shotNO 106 – 109 IND · IND 64% → 80% +15IND 64% → 80%+15 pts
- Q41:31CJ McCollum makes driving layup (Elfrid Payton assists)NO 108 – 109 IND · NO 16% → 34% +18NO 16% → 34%+18 pts
- Q41:00Bennedict Mathurin makes dunk (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NO 108 – 111 IND · IND 67% → 88% +21IND 67% → 88%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- IND -7.5
- ML NO +260 / IND -320
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5.5
- IND 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- IND: Elo 70.0%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -274
- NO +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 111.0 – 118.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −117 | −4 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +147 Elo | IND 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 71.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30103.8 | Points scored | 114.511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 118.125th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.4 | Margin | −3.621st of 30 |
| 27th of 30105.5 | Offense rating | 111.615th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 115.124th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 101.213th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 5–29th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−117 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–12 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–1 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.