New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints19
- Brandon IngramAssists4
- Yves MissiRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints26
- Kyrie IrvingAssists7
- Quentin GrimesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–132
- Q410.1shot clock turnover91–132
- Q434.1Jaylen Nowell out of bounds bad pass turnover91–132
- Q454.1Dwight Powell makes free throw 2 of 291–132
- Q454.1Dwight Powell makes free throw 1 of 291–131
- Q454.1Karlo Matkovic shooting foul91–130
- Q458.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound91–130
- Q41:00Jaylen Nowell misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot91–130
- Q41:11Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 1-foot dunk (Jaden Hardy assists)91–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:05Luka Doncic makes two point shotNO 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 86% → 88% +2DAL 86% → 88%+2 pts
- Q19:37Kyrie Irving makes 27-foot three pointer (Dereck Lively II assists)NO 2 – 9 DAL · DAL 90% → 92% +3DAL 90% → 92%+3 pts
- Q17:59Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)NO 6 – 14 DAL · DAL 90% → 93% +3DAL 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q11:55Trey Murphy III makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl assists)NO 24 – 33 DAL · NO 5% → 7% +2NO 5% → 7%+2 pts
- Q310:48Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)NO 52 – 66 DAL · DAL 94% → 96% +2DAL 94% → 96%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -12.5
- ML NO +575 / DAL -850
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -9.5
- DAL 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 81.8%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- DAL -604
- NO +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 105.5 – 118.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −111 | −6 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +261 Elo | DAL 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 82.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30104.6 | Points scored | 114.412th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 110.68th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.6 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 114.56th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 110.612th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.1 | Pace | 100.117th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−111 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–10 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–2 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.