Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints31
- Austin ReavesAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints32
- Brandon IngramAssists8
- Jeremiah Robinson-EarlRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–99
- Q40.1Dalton Knecht makes free throw 2 of 2104–99
- Q40.1Dalton Knecht makes free throw 1 of 2103–99
- Q40.1Brandon Ingram personal foul102–99
- Q41.1Javonte Green enters the game for Jaylen Nowell102–99
- Q41.1Lakers Full timeout102–99
- Q41.1Dalton Knecht enters the game for Christian Koloko102–99
- Q41.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl out of bounds bad pass turnover102–99
- Q41.1Christian Koloko enters the game for Dalton Knecht102–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:39Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)LAL 87 – 87 NO · NO 25% → 41% +16NO 25% → 41%+16 pts
- Q43:01Brandon Boston Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Nowell assists)LAL 95 – 94 NO · NO 16% → 36% +20NO 16% → 36%+20 pts
- Q42:09Brandon Ingram makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)LAL 95 – 97 NO · NO 35% → 64% +29NO 35% → 64%+29 pts
- Q41:51LeBron James makes 28-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 98 – 97 NO · LAL 34% → 65% +31LAL 34% → 65%+31 pts
- Q437.1LeBron James makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 101 – 97 NO · LAL 70% → 97% +27LAL 70% → 97%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -7.5
- ML LAL -340 / NO +270
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7
- LAL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 75.4%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -286
- NO +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 114.0 – 106.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NO and LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +28 | −133 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Trey Murphy III −20, Jose Alvarado −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +195 Elo | LAL 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 74.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 105.129th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 114.020th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −8.928th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 106.426th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 115.428th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.1 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 18th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−133 Elo- Trey Murphy III right hamstring−20 Elo
- Jose Alvarado strained left hamstring−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 3–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–1 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.