Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints30
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Draymond GreenRebounds8
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints24
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Jeremiah Robinson-EarlRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–108
- Q40.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl defensive rebound112–108
- Q40.1Draymond Green misses free throw 2 of 2112–108
- Q40.1Draymond Green makes free throw 1 of 2112–108
- Q40.1Elfrid Payton personal foul111–108
- Q42.2Pelicans Full timeout111–108
- Q42.2Draymond Green offensive rebound111–108
- Q42.2Draymond Green misses free throw 2 of 2111–108
- Q42.2Draymond Green makes free throw 1 of 2111–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:06Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three pointer (Andrew Wiggins assists)GS 72 – 71 NO · GS 63% → 72% +9GS 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q48:46Brandon Ingram makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)GS 92 – 89 NO · NO 14% → 24% +10NO 14% → 24%+10 pts
- Q47:52Buddy Hield makes 24-foot three point shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 95 – 89 NO · GS 76% → 86% +10GS 76% → 86%+10 pts
- Q43:17Brandon Boston Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Elfrid Payton assists)GS 102 – 99 NO · NO 8% → 21% +13NO 8% → 21%+13 pts
- Q42:53Stephen Curry makes two point shot (Draymond Green assists)GS 104 – 99 NO · GS 80% → 90% +10GS 80% → 90%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- GS -10.5
- ML GS -500 / NO +360
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -9
- GS 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- GS: Elo 81.1%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -383
- NO +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 116.0 – 105.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −124 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +253 Elo | GS 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 74.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.6 | Points scored | 103.530th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 115.423rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.5 | Margin | −11.929th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 105.327th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.4 | Defense rating | 117.428th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.6 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–2 | Road vs home | 3–525th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−124 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–4 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–2 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.