New Orleans Pelicans at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Antonio ReevesPoints34
- Elfrid PaytonAssists8
- Yves MissiRebounds8
Cavaliers- Ty JeromePoints29
- Jaylon TysonAssists7
- Jaylon TysonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–128
- Q46.2Tristan Thompson defensive rebound100–128
- Q48.0Brandon Boston Jr. misses driving layup100–128
- Q415.0shot clock turnover100–128
- Q431.1Jaylon Tyson offensive rebound100–128
- Q433.1Luke Travers misses 23-foot three point jumper100–128
- Q443.2Brandon Boston Jr. makes two point shot (Antonio Reeves assists)100–128
- Q41:03Tristan Thompson makes 7-foot two point shot98–128
- Q41:19Tristan Thompson defensive rebound98–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:00Antonio Reeves makes 27-foot three point jumper (Elfrid Payton assists)NO 27 – 31 CLE · NO 9% → 12% +3NO 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q210:08Georges Niang makes 23-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)NO 29 – 36 CLE · CLE 88% → 91% +3CLE 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q29:45Javonte Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Cain assists)NO 32 – 36 CLE · NO 9% → 12% +3NO 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q26:35Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes three point shot (Jamal Cain assists)NO 41 – 47 CLE · NO 7% → 10% +3NO 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q25:31Ty Jerome makes 25-foot three pointerNO 41 – 50 CLE · CLE 90% → 93% +3CLE 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -14.5
- ML NO +600 / CLE -900
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -15
- CLE 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 92.1%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -630
- NO +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 101.5 – 116.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CLE and NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −163 | +62 | NO: Missing CJ McCollum −36, Trey Murphy III −19 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Missing Darius Garland −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +427 Elo | CLE 92.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 89.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 89.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30103.7 | Points scored | 123.31st of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 111.913th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.8 | Margin | +11.31st of 30 |
| 27th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 121.21st of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 110.111th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.4 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 25th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−163 Elo- CJ McCollum right adductor−36 Elo
- Trey Murphy III right hamstring−19 Elo
Cavaliers
+62 Elo- Darius Garland sore left groin−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–11 | 12–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 9–4 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–2 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.