Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Dalton KnechtPoints20
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints20
- Stephon CastleAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–101
- Q42.0Charles Bassey makes tip shot119–101
- Q42.0Charles Bassey offensive rebound119–99
- Q42.0Blake Wesley misses 12-foot two point shot119–99
- Q420.1Christian Koloko makes 18-foot pullup jump shot119–99
- Q439.1Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)117–99
- Q440.1Malaki Branham offensive rebound117–96
- Q447.0Sidy Cissoko misses 24-foot three point jumper117–96
- Q41:08Malaki Branham defensive rebound117–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20.1Austin Reaves makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 58 – 47 SA · LAL 75% → 81% +7LAL 75% → 81%+7 pts
- Q38:38Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)LAL 62 – 56 SA · SA 22% → 29% +8SA 22% → 29%+8 pts
- Q37:36Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 65 – 56 SA · LAL 71% → 79% +8LAL 71% → 79%+8 pts
- Q36:55Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)LAL 65 – 61 SA · SA 26% → 34% +9SA 26% → 34%+9 pts
- Q34:23Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)LAL 75 – 68 SA · SA 17% → 25% +8SA 17% → 25%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML LAL -130 / SA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -3.5
- LAL 36%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.5 pts
- LAL: Elo 35.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -119
- SA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.0 – 113.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SA and LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | +57 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | LAL crossed 1 time zone and SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +102 Elo | SA 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 110.820th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 109.56th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +1.311th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 110.618th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 109.38th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.316th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 8–37th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–1 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.