Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints25
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds8
Lakers- Dalton KnechtPoints37
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–124
- Q42.1Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three pointer (Kyle Filipowski assists)118–124
- Q45.1Cam Reddish makes free throw 2 of 2115–124
- Q45.1Cam Reddish makes free throw 1 of 2115–123
- Q45.1Collin Sexton personal take foul115–122
- Q410.0John Collins makes two point shot115–122
- Q411.0John Collins offensive rebound113–122
- Q412.1Keyonte George misses 28-foot three point jumper113–122
- Q417.1Cam Reddish enters the game for D'Angelo Russell113–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:52Dalton Knecht makes 22-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)UTAH 2 – 3 LAL · LAL 79% → 83% +4LAL 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q18:13Dalton Knecht makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)UTAH 4 – 10 LAL · LAL 85% → 89% +3LAL 85% → 89%+3 pts
- Q17:00Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three pointer (John Collins assists)UTAH 8 – 14 LAL · UTAH 9% → 12% +3UTAH 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q210:14Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 27 – 35 LAL · UTAH 7% → 10% +3UTAH 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q23:35Collin Sexton makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 40 – 47 LAL · UTAH 8% → 12% +4UTAH 8% → 12%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -10.5
- ML UTAH +435 / LAL -600
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -8
- LAL 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- LAL: Elo 77.9%, market 82.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -459
- UTAH +459 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.0 – 122.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +7 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +219 Elo | LAL 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 79.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 79.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 82.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 116.87th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 115.824th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.2 | Margin | +0.913th of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 115.25th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 114.323rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.312th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–7 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–2 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.