San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints34
- Tre JonesAssists7
- Harrison BarnesRebounds8
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints26
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- John CollinsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–115
- Q45.1Stephon Castle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)128–115
- Q412.1Harrison Barnes defensive rebound125–115
- Q417.1Keyonte George misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot125–115
- Q422.1Chris Paul makes free throw 2 of 2125–115
- Q422.1Chris Paul makes free throw 1 of 2124–115
- Q422.1Brice Sensabaugh personal take foul123–115
- Q423.0John Collins makes 4-foot two point shot (Keyonte George assists)123–115
- Q434.1Chris Paul makes free throw 2 of 2123–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:39Chris Paul makes 25-foot three pointerSA 82 – 82 UTAH · SA 42% → 52% +10SA 42% → 52%+10 pts
- Q33:58Keldon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 88 – 90 UTAH · SA 34% → 45% +10SA 34% → 45%+10 pts
- Q49:50Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)SA 102 – 95 UTAH · SA 69% → 80% +11SA 69% → 80%+11 pts
- Q48:50Collin Sexton makes 28-foot three pointerSA 103 – 100 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 34% +12UTAH 22% → 34%+12 pts
- Q47:33Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point shot (Chris Paul assists)SA 108 – 100 UTAH · SA 75% → 86% +11SA 75% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SA -1.5
- ML SA -125 / UTAH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -3
- SA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.7 pts
- SA: Elo 61.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -114
- UTAH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 113.0 – 111.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +19 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +84 Elo | SA 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30109.8 | Points scored | 109.422nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 118.527th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −9.128th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 107.526th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 116.428th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.810th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | — |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–3 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.