New York Knicks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints27
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds16
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints34
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- John CollinsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–121
- Q411.0Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound106–121
- Q413.1Karl-Anthony Towns misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot106–121
- Q423.1Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)106–121
- Q441.1Josh Hart lost ball turnover (John Collins steals)106–118
- Q443.1Josh Hart defensive rebound106–118
- Q446.0OG Anunoby blocks Walker Kessler 's 5-foot layup106–118
- Q456.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2106–118
- Q456.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2105–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:07Cameron Payne makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 68 – 77 UTAH · NY 26% → 35% +9NY 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q33:54OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 75 – 77 UTAH · NY 47% → 58% +11NY 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q31:48Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point shot (Jordan Clarkson assists)NY 75 – 84 UTAH · UTAH 59% → 70% +11UTAH 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q31:25Jalen Brunson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 78 – 84 UTAH · NY 30% → 40% +11NY 30% → 40%+11 pts
- Q411:20Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 80 – 90 UTAH · UTAH 67% → 77% +11UTAH 67% → 77%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML NY -350 / UTAH +275
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7.5
- NY 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- NY: Elo 77.6%, market 74.5%
- Fair odds
- NY -292
- UTAH +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 121.0 – 112.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1363 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −10 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +216 Elo | NY 77.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 79.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 79.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 74.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 108.725th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 119.327th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −10.728th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 106.926th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 117.429th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 101.711th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 1–529th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–1 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.