New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints36
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Josh HartRebounds11
Suns- Devin BookerPoints33
- Tyus JonesAssists10
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–122
- Q414.0Damion Lee makes free throw 2 of 2138–122
- Q414.0Damion Lee makes free throw 1 of 2138–121
- Q414.0Tyler Kolek shooting foul138–120
- Q419.1Oso Ighodaro defensive rebound138–120
- Q423.0Tyler Kolek misses 25-foot three point jumper138–120
- Q434.0TyTy Washington Jr. steps out of bounds turnover138–120
- Q437.1Cameron Payne lost ball turnover (Damion Lee steals)138–120
- Q451.1Knicks defensive team rebound138–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:36Jalen Brunson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 3 – 0 PHX · NY 61% → 67% +6NY 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q111:14Devin Booker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)NY 3 – 3 PHX · PHX 33% → 39% +6PHX 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q110:50Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 6 – 3 PHX · NY 61% → 67% +6NY 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q110:14OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)NY 9 – 3 PHX · NY 67% → 73% +6NY 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q35:53Ryan Dunn makes 26-foot three point shot (Tyus Jones assists)NY 88 – 77 PHX · PHX 9% → 13% +5PHX 9% → 13%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -4.5
- ML NY -175 / PHX +150
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- NY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- NY: Elo 63.4%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -159
- PHX +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 115.5 – 111.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −78 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +95 Elo | NY 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 111.418th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 112.917th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.7 | Margin | −1.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.9 | Offense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 113.420th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 98.326th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–8 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–1 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.