Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints27
- Isaiah CollierAssists6
- John CollinsRebounds14
Spurs- Harrison BarnesPoints25
- Chris PaulAssists10
- Harrison BarnesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–126
- Q44.1John Collins makes two point shot118–126
- Q48.1John Collins offensive rebound116–126
- Q48.1Lauri Markkanen misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot116–126
- Q416.1Lauri Markkanen makes technical free throw116–126
- Q416.1Keldon Johnson hanging techfoul115–126
- Q416.1Keldon Johnson makes 1-foot dunk115–126
- Q420.1Keldon Johnson defensive rebound115–124
- Q423.0Keyonte George misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot115–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:38Julian Champagnie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)UTAH 91 – 92 SA · SA 45% → 58% +13SA 45% → 58%+13 pts
- Q49:47Drew Eubanks makes dunk (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 97 – 95 SA · UTAH 38% → 56% +18UTAH 38% → 56%+18 pts
- Q47:55Keyonte George makes 26-foot three point jumperUTAH 103 – 100 SA · UTAH 47% → 62% +15UTAH 47% → 62%+15 pts
- Q44:15Isaiah Collier makes two point shotUTAH 108 – 109 SA · UTAH 28% → 41% +13UTAH 28% → 41%+13 pts
- Q43:54Chris Paul makes 23-foot three pointerUTAH 108 – 112 SA · SA 59% → 78% +19SA 59% → 78%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -2.5
- ML UTAH +125 / SA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.7 pts
- SA: Elo 69.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- SA -133
- UTAH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.0 – 113.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1368 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | −18 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | UTAH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +146 Elo | SA 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30108.0 | Points scored | 109.124th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.9 | Points allowed | 109.67th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.9 | Margin | −0.516th of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 109.219th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 109.88th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.018th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 6–311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–2 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.