Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints20
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds8
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints25
- Victor WembanyamaAssists9
- Harrison BarnesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–104
- Q42.1shot clock turnover94–104
- Q426.1Buddy Hield enters the game for Stephen Curry94–104
- Q426.1Chris Paul enters the game for Julian Champagnie94–104
- Q426.1Spurs defensive team rebound94–104
- Q430.1Stephen Curry misses 34-foot three point pullup jump shot94–104
- Q436.0Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 294–104
- Q436.0Julian Champagnie enters the game for Chris Paul94–103
- Q436.0Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 294–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:53Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three pointer (Julian Champagnie assists)GS 87 – 86 SA · SA 26% → 41% +15SA 26% → 41%+15 pts
- Q46:38Stephen Curry makes 29-foot three pointerGS 90 – 86 SA · GS 59% → 74% +15GS 59% → 74%+15 pts
- Q44:25Stephon Castle makes driving layupGS 90 – 90 SA · SA 34% → 47% +13SA 34% → 47%+13 pts
- Q43:48Stephon Castle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)GS 90 – 93 SA · SA 48% → 69% +21SA 48% → 69%+21 pts
- Q43:15Victor Wembanyama makes 32-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)GS 90 – 96 SA · SA 71% → 87% +17SA 71% → 87%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML GS -155 / SA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1
- GS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- GS: Elo 54.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -140
- SA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 116.5 – 113.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | +53 | GS: Missing Jonathan Kuminga −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +34 Elo | GS 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 110.122nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 110.18th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 109.619th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.6 | Defense rating | 109.68th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.3 | Pace | 100.615th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–2 | Road vs home | 7–310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+21 Elo- Jonathan Kuminga illness−8 Elo
Spurs
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–5 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–1 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.