Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints25
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Suns- Devin BookerPoints26
- Devin BookerAssists10
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–127
- Q417.1D'Angelo Russell makes free throw 2 of 2100–127
- Q417.1D'Angelo Russell makes free throw 1 of 299–127
- Q417.1Josh Okogie shooting foul98–127
- Q426.2Josh Okogie makes free throw 2 of 298–127
- Q426.2Suns offensive team rebound98–126
- Q426.2Josh Okogie misses free throw 1 of 298–126
- Q426.2Max Christie loose ball foul98–126
- Q427.1Suns offensive team rebound98–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:22Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)LAL 48 – 51 PHX · LAL 30% → 37% +8LAL 30% → 37%+8 pts
- Q21:22Ryan Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)LAL 56 – 58 PHX · PHX 52% → 60% +8PHX 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q311:45Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 63 – 62 PHX · LAL 40% → 49% +9LAL 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q310:44Jusuf Nurkic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)LAL 64 – 65 PHX · PHX 48% → 57% +9PHX 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q36:32Devin Booker makes 27-foot three pointerLAL 72 – 79 PHX · PHX 67% → 75% +9PHX 67% → 75%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML LAL +120 / PHX -140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- PHX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 56.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -128
- LAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 116.0 – 118.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | −27 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +45 Elo | PHX 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 112.118th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 114.521st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −2.419th of 30 |
| 4th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 112.511th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 115.024th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.426th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 5–315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–9 | 5–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–3 PHX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.