Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints37
- Franz WagnerAssists11
- Goga BitadzeRebounds15
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints39
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- LeBron JamesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–118
- Q40.0Lakers offensive team rebound119–118
- Q41.1Anthony Davis misses 18-foot two point shot119–118
- Q42.1Anthony Black enters the game for Tristan da Silva119–118
- Q42.1Anthony Black enters the game for119–118
- Q42.1Dalton Knecht enters the game for Max Christie119–118
- Q42.1D'Angelo Russell enters the game for Cam Reddish119–118
- Q42.1Lakers Full timeout119–118
- Q43.1Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot119–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:02Anthony Davis makes 28-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)ORL 105 – 110 LAL · LAL 67% → 83% +15LAL 67% → 83%+15 pts
- Q42:06Franz Wagner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gary Harris assists)ORL 113 – 112 LAL · ORL 28% → 57% +29ORL 28% → 57%+29 pts
- Q41:37LeBron James makes two point shotORL 113 – 114 LAL · LAL 42% → 64% +22LAL 42% → 64%+22 pts
- Q41:17Anthony Davis makes 3-foot dunk (LeBron James assists)ORL 113 – 116 LAL · LAL 65% → 85% +20LAL 65% → 85%+20 pts
- Q43.1Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 119 – 118 LAL · ORL <1% → 94% +94ORL <1% → 94%+94 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML ORL +180 / LAL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- LAL: Elo 63.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- LAL -191
- ORL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 105.0 – 110.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −9 | +11 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +93 Elo | LAL 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 117.36th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.3 | Points allowed | 116.024th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.7 | Margin | +1.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 115.84th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.3 | Defense rating | 114.522nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.214th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–7 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–8 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–1 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.