Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints34
- Russell WestbrookAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints19
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–102
- Q40.0(00:00) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)127–102
- Q40.0Max Christie makes 27-foot three pointer127–102
- Q43.1shot clock turnover127–99
- Q426.1Julian Strawther defensive rebound127–99
- Q428.1Gabe Vincent misses 27-foot three point jumper127–99
- Q437.2PJ Hall makes 2-foot dunk (Hunter Tyson assists)127–99
- Q437.2Hunter Tyson offensive rebound125–99
- Q440.0Zeke Nnaji misses 27-foot three point jumper125–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:22Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 65 – 63 LAL · DEN 40% → 49% +9DEN 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q39:54Cam Reddish makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)DEN 65 – 66 LAL · LAL 51% → 60% +9LAL 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q38:57Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 70 – 66 LAL · DEN 46% → 56% +9DEN 46% → 56%+9 pts
- Q38:40Austin Reaves makes 29-foot three pointerDEN 70 – 69 LAL · LAL 44% → 54% +9LAL 44% → 54%+9 pts
- Q35:41Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 81 – 71 LAL · DEN 67% → 76% +9DEN 67% → 76%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML DEN +140 / LAL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2
- LAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- LAL: Elo 58.0%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -151
- DEN +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 116.0 – 120.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | +7 | DEN: Usual rotation · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +56 Elo | LAL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 117.37th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 116.224th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.114th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 115.94th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 114.823rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.3 | Pace | 101.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–9 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–4 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 7–1 LAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Apr 29LAL 106 @ DEN 108PlayoffsPicked DEN 62%Hit
- Apr 27DEN 108 @ LAL 119PlayoffsPicked DEN 53%Miss
- Apr 25DEN 112 @ LAL 105PlayoffsPicked LAL 51%Miss
- Apr 22LAL 99 @ DEN 101PlayoffsPicked DEN 56%Hit
- Apr 20LAL 103 @ DEN 114PlayoffsPicked DEN 57%Hit
- Mar 2DEN 124 @ LAL 114Picked LAL 56%Miss
- Feb 8DEN 114 @ LAL 106Picked DEN 51%Hit
- Oct 24LAL 107 @ DEN 119Picked DEN 57%Hit