Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints26
- Kyrie IrvingAssists6
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints33
- Jamal MurrayAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–120
- Q43.0Peyton Watson bad pass (P.J. Washington steals)123–120
- Q43.1Quentin Grimes enters the game for Dereck Lively II123–120
- Q43.1Spencer Dinwiddie enters the game for Daniel Gafford123–120
- Q43.1Peyton Watson enters the game for DeAndre Jordan123–120
- Q43.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 2 of 2123–120
- Q43.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 1 of 2122–120
- Q43.1Michael Porter Jr. personal take foul121–120
- Q44.0Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2121–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:34Peyton Watson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DAL 106 – 108 DEN · DEN 49% → 67% +18DEN 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q42:08P.J. Washington makes two point shot (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 112 – 113 DEN · DAL 21% → 37% +17DAL 21% → 37%+17 pts
- Q449.1P.J. Washington makes driving layupDAL 117 – 113 DEN · DAL 77% → 94% +17DAL 77% → 94%+17 pts
- Q441.0Nikola Jokic makes driving layup (Jamal Murray assists)DAL 117 – 115 DEN · DEN 4% → 20% +16DEN 4% → 20%+16 pts
- Q410.0Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DAL 119 – 118 DEN · DEN <1% → 19% +19DEN <1% → 19%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML DAL +165 / DEN -200
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 62.7%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- DEN -177
- DAL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 112.5 – 117.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −77 | −3 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +90 Elo | DEN 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 116.59th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+6.3 | Margin | +1.512th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 112.210th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 110.814th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.39th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–7 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–3 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.