Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints23
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Stephen CurryRebounds7
Suns- Devin BookerPoints27
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Kevin DurantRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–113
- Q41.0shot clock turnover105–113
- Q422.1Grayson Allen defensive rebound105–113
- Q426.1Stephen Curry misses 40-foot three point jumper105–113
- Q428.0Tyus Jones makes free throw 2 of 2105–113
- Q428.0Suns offensive team rebound105–112
- Q428.0Tyus Jones misses free throw 1 of 2105–112
- Q428.0Andrew Wiggins personal foul105–112
- Q432.0Brandin Podziemski makes 1-foot layup (Buddy Hield assists)105–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:54Monte Morris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Dunn assists)GS 23 – 25 PHX · PHX 49% → 56% +7PHX 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q110.1Devin Booker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Monte Morris assists)GS 29 – 35 PHX · PHX 58% → 65% +7PHX 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q34:52Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)GS 69 – 79 PHX · PHX 74% → 81% +8PHX 74% → 81%+8 pts
- Q411:42Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Lindy Waters III assists)GS 81 – 87 PHX · GS 17% → 26% +9GS 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q48:27Buddy Hield makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)GS 86 – 93 PHX · GS 11% → 19% +8GS 11% → 19%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -0.5
- ML GS -105 / PHX -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- PHX 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 43.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -104
- GS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 117.5 – 118.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −28 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +43 Elo | GS 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 51.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 113.216th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 114.420th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+7.2 | Margin | −1.217th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 113.28th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.1 | Defense rating | 114.522nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.6 | Pace | 98.825th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–7 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–3 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.