Brooklyn Nets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Dennis SchroderPoints31
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Ziaire WilliamsRebounds10
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints28
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Gary Payton IIRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–120
- Q419.1Jalen Wilson defensive rebound128–120
- Q424.1Stephen Curry misses driving floating jump shot128–120
- Q430.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2128–120
- Q430.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2127–120
- Q430.1Lindy Waters III personal take foul126–120
- Q440.1Stephen Curry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)126–120
- Q443.1Dennis Schroder lost ball turnover (Stephen Curry steals)126–117
- Q448.0Andrew Wiggins makes driving layup126–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:23Shake Milton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)BKN 98 – 94 GS · BKN 36% → 49% +14BKN 36% → 49%+14 pts
- Q46:03Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)BKN 105 – 102 GS · GS 31% → 48% +17GS 31% → 48%+17 pts
- Q44:37Keon Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 110 – 104 GS · BKN 56% → 75% +18BKN 56% → 75%+18 pts
- Q43:26Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 112 – 109 GS · GS 19% → 39% +19GS 19% → 39%+19 pts
- Q43:12Dennis Schroder makes driving layupBKN 114 – 109 GS · BKN 63% → 77% +14BKN 63% → 77%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- GS -13.5
- ML BKN +600 / GS -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -9
- GS 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- GS: Elo 81.4%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -636
- BKN +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.0 – 118.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −20 | +14 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Jonathan Kuminga −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +256 Elo | GS 81.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 80.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 80.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 117.65th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 108.85th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.2 | Margin | +8.84th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 113.67th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 105.04th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 102.76th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+14 Elo- Jonathan Kuminga injury/illness−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–5 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–2 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.