Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints19
- Draymond GreenAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–101
- Q40.0Warriors offensive team rebound105–101
- Q40.0Lindy Waters III misses 35-foot three point jumper105–101
- Q41.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2105–101
- Q41.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2104–101
- Q41.0Lindy Waters III personal foul103–101
- Q41.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound103–101
- Q43.1Luguentz Dort blocks Andrew Wiggins 's 6-foot layup103–101
- Q47.1Lindy Waters III enters the game for Kevon Looney103–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:17Kyle Anderson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)OKC 84 – 86 GS · GS 40% → 53% +13GS 40% → 53%+13 pts
- Q48:14Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)OKC 93 – 94 GS · GS 36% → 50% +15GS 36% → 50%+15 pts
- Q44:11Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 96 – 96 GS · OKC 33% → 53% +21OKC 33% → 53%+21 pts
- Q41:25Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 100 – 96 GS · OKC 64% → 90% +26OKC 64% → 90%+26 pts
- Q411.0Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)OKC 102 – 101 GS · GS <1% → 19% +19GS <1% → 19%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -4.5
- ML OKC -175 / GS +150
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2
- OKC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 57.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -159
- GS +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 114.5 – 110.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1633 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −28 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +55 Elo | OKC 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 117.77th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.9 | Points allowed | 109.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.2 | Margin | +7.86th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 113.98th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.6 | Defense rating | 106.34th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.2 | Pace | 102.55th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 5–29th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–2 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.