Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Tyrese MartinPoints30
- Ben SimmonsAssists8
- Ben SimmonsRebounds9
Suns- Devin BookerPoints31
- Tyus JonesAssists12
- Kevin DurantRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–117
- Q41.0shot clock turnover127–117
- Q425.1Mason Plumlee makes tip shot127–117
- Q425.1Mason Plumlee offensive rebound127–115
- Q425.1Josh Okogie misses driving layup127–115
- Q438.1Ziaire Williams makes free throw 2 of 2127–115
- Q438.1Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Kevin Durant126–115
- Q438.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Tyus Jones126–115
- Q438.1Mason Plumlee enters the game for Grayson Allen126–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:40Devin Booker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)BKN 68 – 66 PHX · PHX 55% → 64% +9PHX 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q39:55Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 71 – 66 PHX · BKN 37% → 46% +9BKN 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q37:11Dennis Schroder makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 78 – 66 PHX · BKN 61% → 70% +9BKN 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q32:20Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shake Milton assists)BKN 87 – 79 PHX · BKN 53% → 64% +11BKN 53% → 64%+11 pts
- Q31:47Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)BKN 89 – 82 PHX · PHX 28% → 39% +11PHX 28% → 39%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -9.5
- ML BKN +310 / PHX -400
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4
- PHX 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 65.2%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- PHX -328
- BKN +328 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.5 – 115.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −48 | −16 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +109 Elo | PHX 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 72.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 112.915th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 113.618th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −0.717th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 113.29th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 113.921st of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 6–313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–5 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–1 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.