Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Dariq WhiteheadPoints18
- Dennis SchroderAssists10
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints21
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Josh GiddeyRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–128
- Q41.1Jevon Carter defensive rebound102–128
- Q43.1Yongxi Cui misses 23-foot three point jumper102–128
- Q49.1shot clock turnover102–128
- Q431.1Talen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound102–128
- Q434.1Yongxi Cui misses 27-foot three point shot102–128
- Q439.2Jevon Carter lost ball turnover (Dariq Whitehead steals)102–128
- Q445.1Talen Horton-Tucker offensive rebound102–128
- Q448.2Chris Duarte misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot102–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:26Shake Milton makes 26-foot three pointer (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 28 – 22 CHI · BKN 38% → 45% +7BKN 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q11:15Jalen Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)BKN 28 – 25 CHI · CHI 55% → 62% +7CHI 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q27:46Ayo Dosunmu makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)BKN 37 – 35 CHI · CHI 55% → 62% +7CHI 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q27:29Dariq Whitehead makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 40 – 35 CHI · BKN 38% → 45% +8BKN 38% → 45%+8 pts
- Q25:13Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)BKN 42 – 44 CHI · CHI 64% → 71% +7CHI 64% → 71%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -7.5
- ML BKN +225 / CHI -275
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2
- CHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- CHI: Elo 58.4%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- CHI -238
- BKN +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 112.0 – 119.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −6 | −2 | BKN: Missing Cameron Johnson −6 · CHI: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +59 Elo | CHI 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 118.54th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 124.230th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.2 | Margin | −5.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 111.615th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 117.129th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 106.11st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 2–727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−6 Elo- Cameron Johnson left ankle sprain−6 Elo
Bulls
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–7 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–0 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.