Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints20
- Franz WagnerAssists8
- Goga BitadzeRebounds13
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints26
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–92
- Q418.0Franz Wagner makes free throw flagrant 2 of 2100–92
- Q418.0Franz Wagner makes free throw flagrant 1 of 299–92
- Q418.0Tyrese Martin enters the game for Nic Claxton98–92
- Q418.0Shake Milton enters the game for Jalen Wilson98–92
- Q418.0Yongxi Cui enters the game for Dennis Schroder98–92
- Q418.0Dariq Whitehead enters the game for Cameron Johnson98–92
- Q418.0Nic Claxton ejected98–92
- Q418.0(00:18.1) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)98–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:48Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumperORL 78 – 79 BKN · BKN 32% → 45% +13BKN 32% → 45%+13 pts
- Q48:45Cole Anthony makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)ORL 81 – 79 BKN · ORL 54% → 68% +14ORL 54% → 68%+14 pts
- Q46:22Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 22-foot three point jumperORL 86 – 83 BKN · ORL 58% → 73% +16ORL 58% → 73%+16 pts
- Q45:40Cameron Johnson makes dunk (Dennis Schroder assists)ORL 86 – 85 BKN · BKN 26% → 37% +11BKN 26% → 37%+11 pts
- Q45:13Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 88 – 85 BKN · ORL 63% → 74% +11ORL 63% → 74%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML ORL -270 / BKN +220
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4
- ORL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 66.1%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- ORL -234
- BKN +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 106.5 – 100.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 206.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −30 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +116 Elo | ORL 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 70.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.4 | Points scored | 111.818th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.8 | Points allowed | 114.821st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.7 | Margin | −3.020th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 113.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.8 | Defense rating | 116.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 97.830th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–8 | 14–6 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–3 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 4–2 BKN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.