Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints21
- Zach LaVineAssists10
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints31
- Jalen SuggsAssists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–133
- Q414.1shot clock turnover119–133
- Q440.1Talen Horton-Tucker makes 28-foot three point jumper (E.J. Liddell assists)119–133
- Q445.1Cory Joseph bad pass (Julian Phillips steals)116–133
- Q41:04Talen Horton-Tucker makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot116–133
- Q41:10Talen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound113–133
- Q41:16Tristan da Silva misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot113–133
- Q41:19Tristan da Silva defensive rebound113–133
- Q41:24Chris Duarte misses two point shot113–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three pointerCHI 0 – 3 ORL · ORL 77% → 82% +4ORL 77% → 82%+4 pts
- Q111:00Ayo Dosunmu makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 3 – 5 ORL · CHI 16% → 20% +4CHI 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q110:42Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)CHI 3 – 8 ORL · ORL 80% → 84% +4ORL 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q16:14Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)CHI 11 – 19 ORL · ORL 84% → 87% +4ORL 84% → 87%+4 pts
- Q15:15Matas Buzelis makes 22-foot three point shot (Zach LaVine assists)CHI 16 – 21 ORL · CHI 13% → 16% +4CHI 13% → 16%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -9.5
- ML CHI +320 / ORL -425
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6.5
- ORL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 74.6%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -340
- CHI +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 107.5 – 117.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −4 | +6 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +187 Elo | ORL 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 79.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 106.427th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.1 | Points allowed | 102.11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.2 | Margin | +4.39th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 107.824th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 103.43rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.2 | Pace | 98.724th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–9 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 9–3 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–4 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.