Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints21
- Franz WagnerAssists7
- Cole AnthonyRebounds8
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints44
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Brandon MillerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–84
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–84
- Q43.1Cole Anthony defensive rebound95–84
- Q46.0Brandon Miller misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot95–84
- Q410.0Cole Anthony makes free throw 2 of 295–84
- Q410.0Cole Anthony makes free throw 1 of 294–84
- Q410.0Moussa Diabate personal take foul93–84
- Q413.0Cole Anthony defensive rebound93–84
- Q415.2Cody Martin misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot93–84
- Q423.1Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 293–84
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:07Moritz Wagner makes 26-foot three point shot (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 54 – 58 CHA · ORL 31% → 42% +11ORL 31% → 42%+11 pts
- Q410:53Cole Anthony makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)ORL 63 – 64 CHA · ORL 39% → 52% +13ORL 39% → 52%+13 pts
- Q49:55Franz Wagner makes 29-foot three pointerORL 66 – 64 CHA · ORL 51% → 65% +13ORL 51% → 65%+13 pts
- Q49:24Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point shot (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 69 – 64 CHA · ORL 65% → 77% +12ORL 65% → 77%+12 pts
- Q46:32Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 76 – 70 CHA · ORL 71% → 83% +13ORL 71% → 83%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -4.5
- ML ORL -190 / CHA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 63.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ORL -170
- CHA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 108.5 – 104.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +15 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +99 Elo | ORL 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 110.621st of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.1 | Points allowed | 115.223rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | −4.622nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 109.021st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.3 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.8 | Pace | 100.118th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Road vs home | 5–316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–8 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 4–1 CHA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.