Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints50
- LaMelo BallAssists10
- Brandon MillerRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints32
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–125
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound119–125
- Q40.0LaMelo Ball misses driving floating jump shot119–125
- Q43.1Gary Trent Jr. personal take foul119–125
- Q44.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2119–125
- Q44.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2119–124
- Q44.1Moussa Diabate personal foul119–123
- Q44.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound119–123
- Q46.1Brandon Miller misses 25-foot three point jumper119–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:46Josh Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 61 – 64 MIL · CHA 19% → 26% +7CHA 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q37:26Damian Lillard makes 25-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)CHA 66 – 72 MIL · MIL 74% → 81% +7MIL 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q34:59LaMelo Ball makes 29-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)CHA 76 – 78 MIL · CHA 21% → 30% +8CHA 21% → 30%+8 pts
- Q33:30LaMelo Ball makes 28-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 79 – 84 MIL · CHA 14% → 21% +7CHA 14% → 21%+7 pts
- Q32:39Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)CHA 80 – 87 MIL · MIL 76% → 84% +8MIL 76% → 84%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -7.5
- ML CHA +250 / MIL -315
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.0%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -266
- CHA +266 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 108.5 – 116.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | 0 | +9 | CHA: Usual rotation · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +107 Elo | MIL 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 76.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.1 | Points scored | 112.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 112.515th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 111.315th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 111.416th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.8 | Pace | 100.218th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 6–311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–6 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–4 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.