Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints27
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Isaiah StewartRebounds9
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints38
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Moussa DiabateRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game121–123
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime121–123
- OT0.1Taj Gibson defensive rebound121–123
- OT2.0Brandon Miller blocks Tobias Harris 's 13-foot jumper121–123
- OT3.2Tobias Harris offensive rebound121–123
- OT5.0Jaden Ivey misses free throw 2 of 2121–123
- OT5.0Jalen Duren enters the game for Wendell Moore Jr.121–123
- OT5.0Taj Gibson enters the game for Josh Green121–123
- OT5.0Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Simone Fontecchio121–123
- OT5.0Jaden Ivey makes free throw 1 of 2121–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:34Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 105 – 107 CHA · DET 14% → 34% +20DET 14% → 34%+20 pts
- Q41:33Jaden Ivey makes driving layup (Malik Beasley assists)DET 107 – 107 CHA · DET 29% → 51% +22DET 29% → 51%+22 pts
- Q425.0LaMelo Ball makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Brandon Miller assists)DET 109 – 109 CHA · CHA 13% → 49% +36CHA 13% → 49%+36 pts
- OT4:39Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 112 – 109 CHA · DET 52% → 71% +19DET 52% → 71%+19 pts
- OT1:43Brandon Miller makes 29-foot three point shot (Cody Martin assists)DET 112 – 116 CHA · CHA 59% → 86% +26CHA 59% → 86%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML DET -150 / CHA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- DET: Elo 49.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- CHA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.5 – 110.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | +1 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +4 Elo | CHA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 51.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.8 | Points scored | 109.123rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 114.119th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −4.923rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 108.224th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 113.119th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.8 | Pace | 100.018th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 4–318th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–6 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–11 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–1 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.