Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints19
- Malik BeasleyAssists4
- Jaden IveyRebounds7
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints30
- Franz WagnerAssists8
- Jonathan IsaacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–111
- Q417.1Alondes Williams makes 2-foot two point shot100–111
- Q421.1shot clock turnover98–111
- Q421.1Magic offensive team rebound98–111
- Q421.1Cole Anthony misses driving floating jump shot98–111
- Q446.1Alondes Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)98–111
- Q41:00Cole Anthony makes free throw 2 of 295–111
- Q41:00Cole Anthony makes free throw 1 of 295–110
- Q41:00Cole Swider shooting foul95–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:37Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 56 – 56 ORL · DET 22% → 30% +7DET 22% → 30%+7 pts
- Q311:10Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)DET 56 – 59 ORL · ORL 70% → 77% +7ORL 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q310:26Tristan da Silva makes 27-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)DET 58 – 64 ORL · ORL 77% → 84% +6ORL 77% → 84%+6 pts
- Q38:39Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Malik Beasley assists)DET 65 – 66 ORL · DET 21% → 28% +7DET 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q32:08Wendell Moore Jr. makes 25-foot three pointerDET 76 – 82 ORL · DET 10% → 16% +6DET 10% → 16%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -9.5
- ML DET +330 / ORL -425
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- ORL: Elo 68.5%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- ORL -348
- DET +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 99.0 – 108.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 207.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | −17 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | ORL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +135 Elo | ORL 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.4 | Points scored | 106.827th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 103.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +3.59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 107.725th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 104.13rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.7 | Pace | 99.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–4 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.