Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints29
- Franz WagnerAssists8
- Franz WagnerRebounds8
Nets- Shake MiltonPoints22
- Ben SimmonsAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–100
- Q42.1Cory Joseph makes 32-foot three pointer123–100
- Q46.2Keon Johnson makes 23-foot step back jumpshot120–100
- Q416.0Jett Howard makes two point shot120–98
- Q420.1Jett Howard offensive rebound118–98
- Q421.2Caleb Houstan misses 24-foot three point jumper118–98
- Q424.0Cory Joseph offensive rebound118–98
- Q426.0Jett Howard misses driving layup118–98
- Q436.1Keon Johnson makes two point shot118–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:28Jalen Wilson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)ORL 12 – 17 BKN · BKN 34% → 40% +6BKN 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q28:03Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 38 – 34 BKN · ORL 70% → 76% +6ORL 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q27:48Tyrese Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keon Johnson assists)ORL 38 – 37 BKN · BKN 24% → 30% +6BKN 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q26:20Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumperORL 44 – 39 BKN · ORL 72% → 78% +6ORL 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q25:05Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)ORL 44 – 42 BKN · BKN 22% → 29% +6BKN 22% → 29%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -7.5
- ML ORL -285 / BKN +230
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4
- ORL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- ORL: Elo 64.9%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- ORL -244
- BKN +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 107.5 – 100.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 207.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −26 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | BKN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +107 Elo | ORL 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.7 | Points scored | 112.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.9 | Points allowed | 114.420th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.8 | Margin | −1.919th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 113.78th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Defense rating | 115.726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 97.830th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–8 | 14–5 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–3 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 12–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–2 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.