Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints35
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds14
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints32
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–129
- Q40.0(00:00) [Celtics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)138–129
- Q40.0Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point shot (Jayson Tatum assists)138–129
- Q41.1Sam Hauser enters the game for Al Horford135–129
- Q41.1Torrey Craig enters the game for Lonzo Ball135–129
- Q41.1Celtics Full timeout135–129
- Q41.1Jayson Tatum defensive rebound135–129
- Q43.2Coby White misses running pullup jump shot135–129
- Q47.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound135–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:27Julian Phillips makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)BOS 98 – 102 CHI · CHI 37% → 50% +13CHI 37% → 50%+13 pts
- Q410:12Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 101 – 102 CHI · BOS 50% → 63% +13BOS 50% → 63%+13 pts
- Q48:09Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 108 – 108 CHI · CHI 22% → 34% +13CHI 22% → 34%+13 pts
- Q47:47Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 111 – 108 CHI · BOS 65% → 78% +13BOS 65% → 78%+13 pts
- Q46:41Payton Pritchard makes 29-foot three pointerBOS 114 – 110 CHI · BOS 69% → 82% +13BOS 69% → 82%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML BOS -750 / CHI +475
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7
- BOS 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 76.3%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -507
- CHI +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 127.5 – 116.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1671 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +4 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +203 Elo | BOS 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 82.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 81.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.2 | Points scored | 118.04th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 123.530th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.7 | Margin | −5.625th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 111.116th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 116.327th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.4 | Pace | 106.21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–1 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–10 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | — | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–0 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.