LA Clippers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints23
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints20
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–126
- Q412.0Xavier Tillman defensive rebound94–126
- Q413.0Terance Mann misses tip shot94–126
- Q417.2Terance Mann offensive rebound94–126
- Q417.2Nicolas Batum misses 5-foot pullup jump shot94–126
- Q419.0Nicolas Batum offensive rebound94–126
- Q422.0Jordan Walsh blocks Terance Mann 's 3-foot driving layup94–126
- Q436.0Jordan Walsh makes 1-foot driving dunk (Jaden Springer assists)94–126
- Q448.1Neemias Queta defensive rebound94–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:03Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)LAC 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 76% → 81% +5BOS 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q14:34Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 10 – 15 BOS · BOS 81% → 85% +4BOS 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q13:23Payton Pritchard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)LAC 13 – 20 BOS · BOS 83% → 87% +4BOS 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q12:11Kobe Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 18 – 22 BOS · LAC 13% → 17% +4LAC 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q11:56Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)LAC 18 – 25 BOS · BOS 83% → 87% +4BOS 83% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML LAC +360 / BOS -500
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6
- BOS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 73.1%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -383
- LAC +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 103.5 – 114.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1660 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | BOS and LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −51 | +23 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +174 Elo | BOS 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 79.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.5 | Points scored | 119.93rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 110.57th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +9.43rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 118.33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.0 | Defense rating | 109.07th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.8 | Pace | 99.421st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–6 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 6–12 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.