LA Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints23
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
76ers- Jared McCainPoints18
- Jared McCainAssists4
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–99
- Q45.1Bones Hyland makes 2-foot dunk125–99
- Q49.2Reggie Jackson bad pass (Bones Hyland steals)123–99
- Q416.0Bones Hyland out of bounds lost ball turnover123–99
- Q419.1Lester Quinones makes driving layup123–99
- Q427.0Jordan Miller turnover123–97
- Q427.0Jordan Miller offensive foul123–97
- Q442.0Justin Edwards makes two point shot (Reggie Jackson assists)123–97
- Q446.1Bones Hyland bad pass (Reggie Jackson steals)123–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:29James Harden makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)LAC 3 – 2 PHI · LAC 49% → 55% +6LAC 49% → 55%+6 pts
- Q110:53Amir Coffey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)LAC 6 – 2 PHI · LAC 55% → 61% +6LAC 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q110:02Guerschon Yabusele makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)LAC 6 – 5 PHI · PHI 38% → 45% +6PHI 38% → 45%+6 pts
- Q14:48Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 24 – 11 PHI · LAC 74% → 79% +5LAC 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q13:48Jared McCain makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Reggie Jackson assists)LAC 27 – 13 PHI · PHI 13% → 19% +6PHI 13% → 19%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -1.5
- ML LAC -125 / PHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2.5
- LAC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 59.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAC -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.0 – 104.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −58 | −56 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +64 Elo | LAC 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.6 | Points scored | 104.529th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 111.713th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −7.226th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 105.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 112.418th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.9 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–6 | 4–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 5–12 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.