Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds7
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints32
- Coby WhiteAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–123
- Q45.1Coby White makes technical free throw132–123
- Q45.1Myles Turner technical foul132–122
- Q45.1Bulls offensive team rebound132–122
- Q49.1Josh Giddey misses 25-foot three point jumper132–122
- Q416.2shot clock turnover132–122
- Q441.0Pascal Siakam defensive rebound132–122
- Q443.1Coby White misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot132–122
- Q448.1Bennedict Mathurin makes driving layup (T.J. McConnell assists)132–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:25Coby White makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Ayo Dosunmu assists)IND 103 – 98 CHI · CHI 16% → 26% +9CHI 16% → 26%+9 pts
- Q48:39Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)IND 109 – 105 CHI · CHI 17% → 28% +11CHI 17% → 28%+11 pts
- Q48:26Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 112 – 105 CHI · IND 73% → 84% +11IND 73% → 84%+11 pts
- Q46:53Josh Giddey makes 3-foot layup (Zach LaVine assists)IND 112 – 109 CHI · CHI 22% → 31% +9CHI 22% → 31%+9 pts
- Q46:33Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerIND 115 – 109 CHI · IND 70% → 83% +13IND 70% → 83%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML IND -165 / CHI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- IND 38%
- Ratings vs. market
- −21.7 pts
- IND: Elo 38.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- IND -149
- CHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 125.5 – 122.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −26 | +15 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +83 Elo | CHI 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 119.84th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 123.329th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.8 | Margin | −3.520th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 112.99th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 116.227th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.4 | Pace | 106.12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–11 | Road vs home | 3–727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–16 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 0–10 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–8 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–3 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.