Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints17
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Johnny FurphyRebounds7
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints26
- Ben SimmonsAssists9
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–99
- Q41.1shot clock turnover90–99
- Q425.1Jarace Walker enters the game for Pascal Siakam90–99
- Q425.1Tristen Newton enters the game for T.J. McConnell90–99
- Q425.1Johnny Furphy enters the game for Obi Toppin90–99
- Q425.1Enrique Freeman enters the game for Bennedict Mathurin90–99
- Q425.1Moses Brown enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton90–99
- Q425.1Nets Full timeout90–99
- Q425.1Pacers Full timeout90–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:16Obi Toppin makes 1-foot dunkIND 76 – 77 BKN · IND 40% → 49% +9IND 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q49:01Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)IND 76 – 80 BKN · BKN 51% → 65% +14BKN 51% → 65%+14 pts
- Q48:36Pascal Siakam makes 11-foot pullup jump shotIND 78 – 80 BKN · IND 35% → 44% +9IND 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q47:42Ben Simmons makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Shake Milton assists)IND 80 – 82 BKN · BKN 46% → 57% +10BKN 46% → 57%+10 pts
- Q46:39Jalen Wilson makes driving layup (Ben Simmons assists)IND 80 – 86 BKN · BKN 68% → 78% +9BKN 68% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML IND -155 / BKN +135
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -3
- IND 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.9 pts
- IND: Elo 39.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- IND -143
- BKN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 114.0 – 111.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −14 | −15 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +78 Elo | BKN 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 110.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 114.720th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.6 | Margin | −4.322nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 111.514th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 115.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.128th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 4–522nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–15 | 14–8 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–7 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–1 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.