Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints25
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints21
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists5
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–106
- Q44.1Tristen Newton makes free throw 2 of 2130–106
- Q44.1Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Malik Beasley130–105
- Q44.1Tristen Newton makes free throw 1 of 2130–105
- Q44.1Ronald Holland II personal foul130–104
- Q45.1Jalen Duren makes 2-foot dunk (Marcus Sasser assists)130–104
- Q46.0Moses Brown bad pass (Marcus Sasser steals)128–104
- Q47.2Ronald Holland II makes driving layup (Malik Beasley assists)128–104
- Q414.2Quenton Jackson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Johnny Furphy assists)126–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:15Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 48 – 36 IND · DET 63% → 70% +7DET 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q21:16Malik Beasley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 63 – 51 IND · DET 66% → 73% +8DET 66% → 73%+8 pts
- Q311:18Jaden Ivey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 66 – 55 IND · DET 64% → 72% +8DET 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q310:48Jaden Ivey makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Duren assists)DET 69 – 55 IND · DET 73% → 80% +7DET 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q38:24Tobias Harris makes three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 74 – 61 IND · DET 72% → 79% +7DET 72% → 79%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -4.5
- ML DET +160 / IND -195
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4.5
- IND 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- IND: Elo 67.4%, market 63.2%
- Fair odds
- IND -172
- DET +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 111.5 – 116.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | +2 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +127 Elo | IND 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 71.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 63.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.5 | Points scored | 114.811th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 117.526th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.5 | Margin | −2.720th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 112.212th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 114.923rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.014th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–10 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–5 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.