Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Marcus SasserPoints22
- Marcus SasserAssists5
- Paul ReedRebounds7
Grizzlies- Marcus SmartPoints25
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Rebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–131
- Q413.1Paul Reed makes 27-foot three point jumper (Wendell Moore Jr. assists)111–131
- Q420.1Paul Reed offensive rebound108–131
- Q423.1Cole Swider misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot108–131
- Q432.1Yuki Kawamura makes 11-foot two point shot108–131
- Q452.1Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 2108–129
- Q452.1Paul Reed makes free throw 1 of 2107–129
- Q452.1Yuki Kawamura loose ball foul106–129
- Q452.1Yuki Kawamura lost ball turnover106–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:06Santi Aldama makes 22-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)DET 20 – 15 MEM · MEM 54% → 61% +7MEM 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q13:57Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malik Beasley assists)DET 26 – 20 MEM · DET 35% → 42% +7DET 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q13:27Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malik Beasley assists)DET 29 – 22 MEM · DET 38% → 44% +7DET 38% → 44%+7 pts
- Q12:11Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)DET 33 – 25 MEM · MEM 46% → 53% +7MEM 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q11:40Jake LaRavia makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)DET 33 – 28 MEM · MEM 53% → 60% +7MEM 53% → 60%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -7.5
- ML DET +250 / MEM -320
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -7
- MEM 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- MEM: Elo 75.3%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- MEM -267
- DET +267 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 108.5 – 116.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | +51 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +194 Elo | MEM 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.4 | Points scored | 120.42nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 112.814th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +7.76th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 113.77th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 106.45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 106.03rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 7–311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–9 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–12 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–3 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.