Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints31
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds14
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints25
- Jaden IveyAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–102
- Q40.0(00:00) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)100–102
- Q40.0Jaden Ivey makes 8-foot two point shot100–102
- Q422.1Ochai Agbaji enters the game for Jakob Poeltl100–100
- Q422.1Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Jamison Battle100–100
- Q422.1Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Ausar Thompson100–100
- Q422.1Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Isaiah Stewart100–100
- Q422.1Pistons Full timeout100–100
- Q422.2Scottie Barnes makes driving layup100–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:47RJ Barrett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 98 – 96 DET · TOR 38% → 69% +31TOR 38% → 69%+31 pts
- Q41:07Jaden Ivey makes two point shotTOR 98 – 98 DET · DET 26% → 51% +26DET 26% → 51%+26 pts
- Q438.1Isaiah Stewart makes 2-foot dunk (Malik Beasley assists)TOR 98 – 100 DET · DET 51% → 82% +31DET 51% → 82%+31 pts
- Q422.2Scottie Barnes makes driving layupTOR 100 – 100 DET · TOR 11% → 49% +38TOR 11% → 49%+38 pts
- Q40.0Jaden Ivey makes 8-foot two point shotTOR 100 – 102 DET · DET 53% → 100% +47DET 53% → 100%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML TOR +130 / DET -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- DET: Elo 55.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -138
- TOR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.5 – 112.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +32 | −15 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +36 Elo | DET 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 109.822nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 111.612th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.9 | Margin | −1.818th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 108.824th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 110.615th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.7 | Pace | 99.222nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–9 | Road vs home | 3–525th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–6 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.