Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints18
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds19
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints26
- Ty JeromeAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–122
- Q40.1Raptors offensive team rebound108–122
- Q41.1Jamal Shead misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot108–122
- Q48.1Jonathan Mogbo offensive rebound108–122
- Q414.1Jamal Shead misses 24-foot three point jumper108–122
- Q417.1Bruno Fernando offensive rebound108–122
- Q419.1Jamison Battle misses 22-foot three point jumper108–122
- Q428.1Isaac Okoro makes two point shot108–122
- Q444.1Luke Travers enters the game for Ty Jerome108–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:44Gradey Dick makes 28-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 49 – 53 CLE · TOR 11% → 16% +4TOR 11% → 16%+4 pts
- Q21:14Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)TOR 53 – 60 CLE · CLE 84% → 89% +5CLE 84% → 89%+5 pts
- Q357.1Jamal Shead makes 25-foot three point shot (Ochai Agbaji assists)TOR 89 – 92 CLE · TOR 13% → 21% +8TOR 13% → 21%+8 pts
- Q341.0Ty Jerome makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotTOR 89 – 94 CLE · CLE 79% → 84% +5CLE 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q30.1Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (Donovan Mitchell assists)TOR 90 – 96 CLE · CLE 82% → 87% +5CLE 82% → 87%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -11.5
- ML TOR +490 / CLE -680
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -10
- CLE 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 83.8%, market 83.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -514
- TOR +514 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.0 – 122.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +45 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +285 Elo | CLE 83.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 80.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 80.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 83.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 123.51st of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 111.211th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.4 | Margin | +12.31st of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 121.91st of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 109.810th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 30th of 300–8 | Road vs home | 9–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–5 | 13–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 10–4 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.