Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints19
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists7
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds9
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points25
- Ja MorantAssists8
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–136
- Q419.1Grizzlies defensive team rebound121–136
- Q422.0Tristen Newton misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot121–136
- Q429.1John Konchar makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)121–136
- Q452.0Quenton Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2121–133
- Q452.0Pacers offensive team rebound120–133
- Q452.0Quenton Jackson misses free throw 1 of 2120–133
- Q452.0Yuki Kawamura shooting foul120–133
- Q41:02Pacers defensive team rebound120–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:38T.J. McConnell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)IND 71 – 68 MEM · IND 38% → 47% +9IND 38% → 47%+9 pts
- Q39:04Desmond Bane makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Clarke assists)IND 73 – 73 MEM · MEM 52% → 61% +9MEM 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q38:32Ja Morant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)IND 73 – 76 MEM · MEM 61% → 70% +9MEM 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q37:40Jaylen Wells makes 24-foot three pointerIND 77 – 79 MEM · MEM 58% → 67% +9MEM 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q33:04Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)IND 86 – 93 MEM · MEM 73% → 82% +8MEM 73% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -5.5
- ML IND +190 / MEM -235
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -6.5
- MEM 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 74.3%, market 67.0%
- Fair odds
- MEM -203
- IND +203 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 119.0 – 124.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −22 | +85 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +184 Elo | MEM 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 69.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 67.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 121.03rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 112.515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.8 | Margin | +8.55th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 114.26th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 106.34th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 105.92nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 9–35th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–13 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–6 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–1 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.